Two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe appears poised for another moment of pivotal historic change. European leaders recently met in Brussels to seek a way forward for the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. Their efforts were rewarded on Tuesday, November 3, 2009, when the lone holdout, Czech President, Vaclav Klaus signed the accord. Will the Lisbon Treaty enable the European Union to play a more active role in international affairs? Across the Atlantic two former European heads of state, now academics at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies, were also addressing the future of European unity. The two-day event titled “The European Union in a Moment of Crisis,” took place in Providence, Rhode Island, October 28 and 29, 2009.
Romano Prodi, former prime minister of Italy and past president of the European Commission, reminded those assembled that the accomplishments of the EU have been considerable. Efforts at European unity began in 1957 with six countries. Fifty years later, the EU comprises 27 countries speaking 22 languages. Prodi said that this remarkable record of enlargement by democratic process “has never happened before in world history.” Today the Eurozone comprises 496 million people and claims the number one GNP in the world. Oddly, the “crisis” facing the EU is a result of its history-making success.
Alfred Gusenbauer, former Chancellor of Austria, asked the audience to think of the European Union, not as a geographical entity, but rather as a political project. It originated as an attempt to heal the wounds of World War II, particularly the tensions between France and Germany. The enlargement effort was intended to stabilize the young democracies such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. Continued expansion came about as an effort to repair the scars that the Cold War’s Iron Curtain had left on the continent. Gusenbauer stated that these successive steps were not acts of charity but investments in the peace and stability of Europe.
But will Europe grow indefinitely? Prodi observes that member countries have become more conservative as they have prospered in the European community. Some member nations wonder if “digestive capacity” has been reached. Both Gusenbauer and Prodi anticipate the absorption of the Western Balkans as the next phase of enlargement to mitigate the effects of the war in the former Yugoslavia. They suggested the possibility of a second tier of membership or “ring of friends” to enable entrants to enjoy the economic benefits without creating new seats in the European parliament. This could pave the way for the inclusion of other interested nations such as Turkey or Ukraine.
While the EU has demonstrated a remarkable record of enlargement, institutions of integration have lagged behind. Professor Prodi laments the current lack of common economic, energy and foreign policy that relegates the EU to the role of spectator rather than actor in world affairs. The inability of the Eurozone to speak with one voice on these matters limits its influence on the world scene. He describes the definition of Europe as “a union of minorities” each with its diverse views and defensive of its vested national interests. The European Constitution currently requires that all member states agree before change can be implemented. Prodi declared that differences in national interests and the requirement of unanimity make continued integration difficult to achieve through democracy.
Nevertheless, he sees greater unity for Europe as a necessity. “The world is changing,” he emphasized. “This is not the same world as a generation ago. We are entering an era of cross–continental issues where problems can’t be solved by one nation. Europe must adapt by uniting, or its individual countries will become irrelevant in shaping the future. During the Rennaisance, Italy led the world in finance, arts and culture. History shows that its failure to adapt caused it to fade from influence in world affairs.”
Concern about the future of capitalism figured prominently in the panelists remarks. The impact of the financial crisis on the United States is such that the American consumer can no longer be the “consumer of last resort,” said Gusenbauer. This decrease in American consumption poses significant challenges for the many European countries dependent on exports. As global imbalances in consumption decrease, he said, export-oriented economies must increase their demands.
Prodi and Gusenbauer both agreed that challenges to the economic dominance of the United States translate into political pressures as well. As American consumers face new limitations, the new American president is seeking to reinvent the position of the United States in “a more multipolar, and let’s hope, cooperative world” Gusenbauer said. In this sense, the financial crisis marks a new era for Europe, the U.S., and the world. “The 21st century is beginning now,” he said.
Can Europe meet this 21st-century challenge with a clear and coherent response? Gusenbauer defined the current diversity challenge: “Different countries have different perceptions of what the EU should be.” Their aspirations are often related to their national strengths. He quipped to his colleague that “the Italians would welcome a European Union that looked a little more like Italy, and so forth.”
Currently, Europe is dependent on Russia to supply its need for natural gas. This virtual monopoly enables Russia to exercise enormous political pressure. The only viable alternative as a natural gas supplier is Iran. This creates a complicated economic, moral and security dilemma for the Eurozone. Should the EU buy Iranian natural gas or participate with other nations in isolating Iran as a deterrent to its nuclear program? The European community fears that if it doesn’t buy Iranian natural gas the Russians and the Chinese will.
Both professors agreed that foreign policy will be the last national interest transferred to the European Union, arguing that the achievement of an integrated and coherent security and foreign policy will be the “last chapter” of shared sovereignty in European unity. They foresee that this move will require a series of incremental steps including the establishment of a joint diplomatic corps that would offer a European opinion to compete with individual national interests.
Prodi’s perspective is that the European Union can’t continue in its current phase indefinitely or it will lose momentum. He exhorted the member states of the EU to recognize and exploit this moment of opportunity or risk “losing this appointment with history.”
What are the preconditions necessary for a stronger European Union? Prodi declared that the unanimity rules must go. Gusenbauer added “From Nice to Lisbon we have spent a decade on finding unanimity. This creates the perception that we spend our time on constitutional matters and not dealing with the issues that concern the people.”
Prodi projects the need for an increase in the EU budget. Currently, the budget is 1% of the GDP of member states. Gusenbauer favors a change to direct European taxes as an alternative source of funding to eliminate the perception of net payer and net receiver member nations that currently splits the union. He sees the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty as the gradual entering of a new stage for the EU, what he calls the “politicizing of Europe.” The treaty allows the strongest political party in Europe to select the EU president. It also establishes a High Representative for Foreign Affairs who will simultaneously be the Vice President of the European Commission. He foresees that “this individual may well become the most influential person in the European Union.”
When Vision asked Professor Prodi, “What would make you optimistic about Europe finding its unified voice on the world stage and thereby moving from spectator to actor in world affairs?” he responded, “In my view it will take a deep crisis. Leaders learn through crisis and people only understand when they experience tragedy.”
Gusenbauer concurred. “The next step for European integration requires political energy. That energy is not there now. It won’t come from within, it could come from without.”
TOM FITZPATRICK
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